Complexity as Policy Framework
The Art of Turning a Simple Question into a Multidimensional Thesis
Complexity is a term often used but least understood. It resonates across various fields, encapsulating the intricate interplay of parts within systems that defy any kind of straightforward understanding or analysis.
Essentially, complexity refers to the behaviour of systems composed of many interrelated elements where the interactions among these elements lead to emergent properties—phenomena that can't be predicted just by examining the individual parts. This is distinct from where things are complicated, the implication being a level of difficulty, often due to many parts or steps, but doesn't necessarily comprise intricate interactions or adaptive behaviours. Manufactured systems are often complicated; natural systems are invariably complex. It's important to be able to distinguish between the two. That's where patterns and emergence become important.
Emergence is a fundamental concept within the study of complexity, serving as a lens through which we can understand how complex systems typically function. Emergence is the phenomenon where larger patterns or behaviours arise from the simple interactions of smaller components, leading to outcomes that are not predictable from analysing the individual parts alone. For example, in a flock of birds, each bird follows some basic rules: align with neighbours, maintain distance, and move toward the centre of the group. These simple behaviours, when enacted by numerous individual birds, produce the stunning choreography of the flock, a pattern that no single bird orchestrates. This demonstrates how complexity often stems from simplicity; the whole becomes different from, and greater, than the sum of its parts.
The physical world is inherently complex, characterised by intricate interactions across various domains. Natural ecosystems serve as prime examples. Here, abundant varieties of organisms—plants, animals, insects, microorganisms, and fungi—interact with one another and their environment. A forest exhibits complex symbiotic relationships: trees provide shelter and food for the faunae as they contribute to seed dispersal and pollination. The delicate balance within the ecosystem can be disrupted by small changes in the climate, or by the introduction of invasive species, for example, leading to arbitrary consequences. In human social systems, sophisticated communal networks, cultural dynamics, distinctive belief systems and economic interactions create emergent properties that are difficult, if not impossible, to forecast - as seen in the rapid dissemination of information on social media platforms that can sway public opinion.
Climate systems further illustrate this complexity, involving the interplay of atmospheric, oceanic, and terrestrial processes. Factors such as temperature, humidity, wind patterns, cloud cover and ocean currents interact in nonlinear ways, making climate prediction challenging. Small changes, like a slight increase in ocean temperature, can lead to significant weather phenomena like hurricanes or droughts, demonstrating the system's sensitive self-regulatory mechanisms.
Similarly, economic markets are characterised by countless agents—broadly consumers, businesses, and governments—interacting in dynamic concert, where small shifts can lead to significant fluctuations, as exemplified by the 2008 financial crisis. In that instance it was the impact of credit default swaps and sub-prime mortgages. These interactions create a complex web of interdependencies and influences, where decisions made by one agent can ripple through the entire system, affecting others in unpredictable ways. For instance, consumer confidence can drive demand, which in turn influences business investment and government policy. These connections underscore the non-linear nature of market behaviour, where the outcomes are often emergent and not easily forecast, highlighting the need for highly adaptive strategies when navigating this terrain.
Healthcare systems also showcase complexity, as a multitude of volatile factors—including the cost of prescription drugs, patient behaviour, medical technology, insurance, healthcare policies, and socio-economic conditions—all interact. The COVID-19 pandemic shone a spotlight on this complexity, as the spread of the virus was influenced by human behaviour following the alarums of the WHO, and people like Anthony Fauci, public health responses, and healthcare infrastructure, which led to a variety of outcomes across different regions. But more of that later.
Urban environments represent another facet of complexity where elements such as public transport, commuter behaviours, highway road and rail networks, housing, commerce, and social services interact, creating challenges like traffic congestion and pollution that then require innovative solutions and even the retrofitting of infrastructure.
Biological systems are a perfect example of complexity at a microscopic level. Within each cell, numerous interacting components—proteins, genes, enzymes, mirochondria and organelles—are working together to maintain life. Cellular signalling pathways involve networks of interactions, where the activation of one protein can trigger a cascade of effects, influencing cell behaviour adaptively. The internet, of course, is a complex system made up of countless networks and connections. Interactions between users, data, and algorithms create emergent behaviours, such as trends in information dissemination, highlighting the dynamic nature of these systems.
All of that has to do with corporeal systems. But complexity also exists in the singular and collective minds of our society. The complexity of consciousness adds another dimension to this discussion. Our best guess to date, although this is a highly contentious issue, is that consciousness arises from the intricate workings of the brain, which is composed of a staggering 86 billion neurons interconnected by trillions of synapses. This incredible neural network processes vast amounts of information, leading to the emergence of ideas, feelings, beliefs, and self-awareness.
What I call this 'structured' self-awareness is a key aspect of human consciousness. It involves the ability to reflect on one’s thoughts, emotions, and existence, allowing us to contemplate our identity and place in the world. This higher-order thinking emerges from simpler cognitive processes and is influenced by social interactions, experiences, and our cultural context.
It's also related to sentience. But whereas sentience refers to the capacity to experience sensations, such as pleasure and pain, focusing primarily on the ability to perceive and respond to stimuli, consciousness encompasses a much broader awareness that includes not only feelings but also higher-order cognitive processes like self-reflection, reasoning, along with convoluted emotions such as remorse and jealousy.
While all sentient beings possess some degree of consciousness, not all conscious beings are sentient in the same way. For example, conventional wisdom supposes that humans exhibit a more complex form of consciousness than most other animals. Of course that theory may well be challenged in the future. Thus, sentience is primarily about feeling, whereas consciousness involves a wider range of cognitive abilities and self-awareness.
The complexity of consciousness also raises deep philosophical questions, such as the nature of subjective experience and the mind-body problem. These inquiries explore how physical processes in the brain relate to the subjective experience of being aware. Theories such as panpsychism suggest consciousness may be a fundamental aspect of the universe, while others propose that it emerges from complex systems, which could well include Gaia herself. Interpersonal dynamics further illustrate the fact human consciousness is influenced by social interactions within cultural contexts, shaping our collective experiences and emergent phenomena.
The rise of artificial intelligence introduces additional complexity, raising questions about the possibility of 'conscious' machines. Current AI systems, while exhibiting complex behaviours, lack subjective experience, prompting additional ethical considerations about the nature of consciousness. From the perspective of complexity science, consciousness can be viewed as a complex adaptive system, involving feedback loops where thoughts and emotions influence behaviours, enabling individuals to navigate their environments effectively.
Catastrophe theory and dissipative structures further enrich our knowledge of complexity and complex systems. Catastrophe theory examines how small changes in parameters can lead to sudden and dramatic shifts in systemic behaviour. For instance, an ecological system facing gradual environmental stress might not initially show effects, but crossing a critical threshold can lead to rapid shifts, illustrating how the most delicate reordering can result in massive transformative change. Dissipative structures are systems that can maintain order by dissipating energy from their surroundings. These structures arise in far-from-equilibrium conditions, allowing for the emergence of order from chaos. They highlight how complex systems can evolve and adapt over time, maintaining stability despite their underlying chaos.
Together, catastrophe theory and dissipative structures highlight how complex systems can exhibit both stability and vulnerability simultaneously. They emphasize the importance of understanding thresholds and adaptive capacity in managing risks and fostering resilience in various domains - from environmental management and emergency services to economic policy. By recognising the dynamics of catastrophic shifts and the role of energy dissipation, policymakers and scientists can better anticipate and respond to the challenges posed by complexity in our interconnected world.
Complex systems reveal a world brimming with elaborately dynamicthreads of connection, emergent behaviours, and adaptive dynamics. Recognising the beauty and intricacy of complexity enhances our understanding of our world and impels us to navigate it with care. From natural ecosystems to social systems, climate dynamics to economic markets, and the profound intricacies of consciousness, the real world is rich with interdependencies of all kinds that shape not only our environment, and the conditions we need for life, but also our multifarious interactions. Embracing complexity invites us to appreciate the unpredictable, the ambiguous, and the wondrous behaviours that arise from the interplay of a myriad interconnected parts.
So why am I being so pedantic at explaining all of this? What is it about complexity that's so intriguing and also so important? It's because of the misunderstandings and confusions that arise when language is used sloppily. It is common for people to use the words complicated and complex due interchangeably. But they are very different, and that difference is critical in formulating government policy.
The term "complicated" implies a level of intricacy, but is ultimately manageable. "Complexity" however, refers to systems with unpredictable interactions and emergent behaviours. This confusion can be further aggravated by a focus on predictability, as complicated systems can be analyzed and understood, whereas complex systems exhibit nonlinearity and a sensitivity to initial conditions.
Educational systems often emphasize reductionist approaches, leading to a lack of appreciation for the nuances of complexity, while our desire for control can result in oversimplifying complex phenomena. Additionally, communication challenges arise when discussing complex systems, making it difficult for those outside specialized fields to grasp their intricacies. Recognizing these distinctions is essential for effectively addressing the challenges posed by complex systems in our world.
The many implications for government policies and international relations, therefore, are acute. In an era marked by unprecedented global challenges, along with regional conflicts, public health and immigration issues, political populism and increasing societal polarisation, it is incumbent upon policymakers to adopt a systems thinking approach that recognizes the intricate nature of these interconnections across social, economic, and environmental domains. Such awareness of complexity is crucial in revealing how actions in one area have cascading effects elsewhere, emphasizing the need for caution and holistic solutions.
This is nowhere better revealed than in a new study on mRNA vaccines published on the 18th December 2024 which confirms our worst fears regarding Big Pharma's role leading up to and during the pandemic. The speed of development of the mRNA technology meant that a rapid manufacturing rollout was a huge gamble, particularly because of short-cuts taken in the R&D process and the fact that there was no long-term safety data available. Only now is that data confirming that the gamble was a catastrophic error.
While this new study found a 4% to 8% decrease in the risk of death for those vaccinated in the medium term, the risk of death was 69% to 94% higher for those vaccinated in the longer term. In other words, after 1 year a negligible benefit against Covid-19 was reversed and the vaccinated showed a substantially greater risk of death. The study’s authors are suggesting that the vaccines may have an indirect effect on the immune system and that the effects could contribute to an increased risk of death from other causes over time. That has yet to be proven of course. But claims that these vaccines saved millions of lives could turn out to be false.
To navigate this kind of complexity, adaptive policy frameworks are absolutely critical. Policies have to be designed with flexibility and responsiveness in mind, enabling adjustments to be made based on real-time feedback and evolving conditions. Iterative processes like strategic navigation can facilitate learning and adaptation, allowing governments to respond effectively to changing circumstances. Future-proofing tools like scenario planning and backcasting also play a crucial role, as they prepare policymakers for multiple potential futures and equip them with the means to make robust decisions in the face of uncertainty.
Engaging diverse stakeholders in the policy-making process is a vital aspect of addressing complexity. By incorporating multiple perspectives, governments can develop more effective and inclusive solutions that reflect the realities of those affected by their policies. This collaborative approach fosters a sense of ownership and shared responsibility among citizens and communities and can help achieve compliance if that is desparately needed. Without it citizens can feel imposed upon to the extent that they react against their own governments.
In the realm of international relations, the recognition of complex interdependence encourages nations to adopt diplomatic strategies that account for the various channels through which countries are either joined at the hip - be it through trade, environmental issues, or security concerns - or detached, because of ideology or sectarian intolerance, for example. Understanding that small changes can lead to significant outcomes helps mitigate the risks of escalating potential conflicts and promotes stability on the global stage. One has to look no further than the current wars in Ukraine and Israel to understand what happens when these interdependencies are ignored.
Moreover, as global challenges become increasingly convoluted, which is highly probable given the enmity between the warmongers in Washington and their desire to provoke China, international institutions must evolve to manage this complexity more effectively. Enhancing a capacity for rapid response at the same time as advocating cooperation among nations are crucial steps in addressing shared challenges. We are not very good at this. Our euphemistically named Departments of Defence are nothing of the kind. Peace needs work. While building resilience against systemic shocks, such as economic crises and pandemics, requires collaborative efforts that prioritize resource sharing and the development of adaptive capacities.
Complexity is a reality. There is no hiding from it. Nor can it be simplified like a complicated system can be. It is vital that we understand that. Human societies are nested complex systems, not giant clockworks. The insights derived from the study of complexity enable governments and international actors to embrace adaptive, collaborative, and systems-oriented policy approaches. By recognizing the intricate web of interactions, and any potential for nonlinear outcomes, policymakers are better able to steer their nations through the challenges of an increasingly dangerous world, fostering resilience and cooperation on both national and global levels.