Out of Africa Arises Hope
From Combat Zone to World Custodian
This essay is dedicated to my dear friend and colleague Goodnews Cadogan, a proud son of Africa and one of its most insightful citizens
The tremors of distant conflicts threaten to reshape the foundations of African sovereignty and self-determination. Indeed I can't think of one society that will remain immune from what's going on in the world generally - particularly the deeper civilisational frictions and fissures that are already impacting everything from trade to travel.
Escalating tensions between Israel and Iran are not just regional skirmishes confined to Middle Eastern battlegrounds, although we might hope otherwise. They herald a fundamental reconfiguration of global power dynamics that will inevitably cascade across the varied landscapes of the African continent, testing fragile institutions, nascent democracies, and hard-won strides toward genuine independence in distinct yet unpredictable ways. From the Sahel to the Horn, the ripples of geopolitical instability threaten to amplify existing vulnerabilities.
The interconnected nature of our contemporary world means that what unfolds in the Majles of Tehran or the strategic operations rooms of Tel Aviv will soon manifest in the bustling markets of Lagos, the mining communities of the Democratic Republic of Congo, and the drought-stricken villages of the Horn of Africa. This is not hyperbole-it's the brutal reality of an interconnected yet profoundly unequal and unjust world-system, where the decisions of powerful actors ricochet around the most vulnerable societies with devastating precision. So let's not pretend for one moment that any of this is simple, normal, and inherently self-correcting.
Consider, for instance, how a disruption in global shipping lanes could cripple vital supply chains for essential medicines in East Africa. When Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping in late 2023 increased container costs by 300%, African importers of essential medicines faced immediate supply chain disruptions. Similarly, the 2019 drone strikes on Saudi Aramco facilities sent African fuel prices soaring within days, demonstrating how quickly distant conflicts translate into local hardship.
Consider too the immediate economic shockwaves that would emanate from any significant escalation. Africa's energy vulnerability, long masked by the rhetoric of resource abundance, would be brutally exposed as global oil markets convulse in response to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. The continent's heavy reliance on imported petroleum products would transform what might appear as distant geopolitical maneuvering into immediate fiscal catastrophe for governments already struggling with debt burdens and inflationary pressures. The cost of living would spike precisely where populations can least afford it, potentially triggering social unrest that autocratic regimes would inevitably suppress. How? Through knee-jerk habits of increased militarization and authoritarian control.
This is not just a matter of economics; it's a question of systemic resilience. A spike in energy prices, for example, could derail nascent efforts to build sustainable energy infrastructure, locking African nations into continued dependence on volatile global markets. Yet this economic brittleness represents only the surface layer of a much deeper weakness.
The political and ideological dimensions of an Israel-Iran conflict possess the potential to fracture African societies along religious and ethnic lines that external actors have historically exploited with devastating effectiveness. The continent's remarkable diversity of faith traditions and cultural identities, normally a source of much strength and resilience, could become weapons in the hands of those seeking to advance geopolitical agendas far removed from African interests and aspirations. The spread of disinformation campaigns, leveraging existing social divisions, could quickly undermine democratic processes and fuel internal conflicts, particularly in regions already grappling with political instability.
We must acknowledge the uncomfortable truth that certain parts of Africa have too often served as a proxy battleground for global powers pursuing their own strategic objectives with little or no regard for African agency and self-determination. The Cold War transformed the continent into a chessboard where superpowers moved African lives and resources around according to differing ideological imperatives. These bore no relationship to local needs or aspirations.
Today, as we watch the emergence of new global power blocs centered around an increasingly moribund US; China, India and Brazil flexing their economic muscle via BRICS; Europe and ASEAN regions both realising they can no longer rely on the US; Russia seeking to reassert its influence; and Middle Eastern powers expanding their reach, parts of Africa face the very real prospect of once again becoming a neocolonial theatre for conflicts that originate elsewhere but claim African lives and resources.
This is by no means a foregone conclusion. The lessons of the Cold War, and the growing awareness of neocolonial tactics, have fostered a new generation of African rulers and activists determined to chart their own autonomous course.
The strategic importance of African trade routes, from the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, combined with the continent's vast natural resources and growing significance in global supply chains, makes it an irresistible prize for competing powers. The presence of Chinese-built infrastructure, American military bases, and the growing influence of Gulf states creates an intricate web of dependencies and obligations that could easily entrap African nations in conflicts not of their making. When external powers begin viewing African states primarily as assets to be leveraged or territories to be controlled, the prospect of genuine self-determination recedes dramatically. This is particularly true in countries with weak governance and a history of corruption, where external actors can exploit existing vulnerabilities. However, even in these challenging environments, there are examples of African communities and civic enterprises resisting external manipulation and advocating for their own interests.
Nevertheless, this dynamic becomes particularly hazardous when we consider the prevalence of weak, often corruptible, governance structures across the continent. States struggling with limited institutional capacity, ongoing insurgencies, and fragmented authority structures, yet an abundance of natural resources, become especially vulnerable to external manipulation. The proliferation of arms and the presence of proxy actors could easily transform existing conflicts in the Sahel, the Horn of Africa, and other volatile regions into much larger conflagrations that serve external interests while devastating local populations. The competition for resources in the Sahel region, for example, exacerbated by climate change and external interference, has created a breeding ground for extremist groups and proxy conflicts.
These geopolitical vulnerabilities intersect dangerously with climate pressures already reshaping African societies. The 2020-2022 drought in the Horn of Africa displaced over 20 million people, creating conditions that both ISIS and al-Shabaab exploited for recruitment. When global conflicts disrupt food imports—as Ukraine's war did to wheat supplies—climate-stressed communities become even more susceptible to extremist messaging and external exploitation. This convergence of environmental and geopolitical stress represents Africa's most vulnerable acupuncture point.
Perhaps most troubling is how this scenario might unfold against the backdrop of Western moral and political incoherence that has become increasingly apparent over recent years. The selective application of international law, the inconsistent commitment to human rights principles, and the glaring contradictions between stated values and actual policies have fundamentally undermined Western credibility as ethical arbiters of global affairs. When the same powers that condemn violations of sovereignty in one context actively support or ignore similar violations in another, they expose the hollowness of their claimed dedication to universal principles. This incoherence, driven by the rise of populism and nationalism, declining trust in Western institutions, perceived economic self-interest, internal injustices, and the perception of declining Western influence in a multipolar world, creates a crisis of legitimacy that is hindering the Global North's capacity to address global challenges effectively.
This incoherence presents obvious risks but also unexpected opportunities for Africa. The major risk is that African rulers will be tempted to emulate the West's double standards and hypocrisy, using external support to justify authoritarian practices or aggressive policies toward neighbours. The erosion of principled governance, albeit with an African character, in favour of transactional relationships with global powers could accelerate the militarization of African societies and the weakening of democratic institutions that have already taken decades to establish.
Then again, this crisis also creates an opening for Africa to forge its own path, based on its own inimitable values and clear priorities. By embracing a more principled approach to international relations, and by strengthening its own institutions, Africa could assert moral leadership on the global stage far beyond that which it's been able to do in the past. As traditional powers reveal entrenched limitations and contradictions, space opens for alternative visions of international relations based on genuine multilateralism, respect for sovereignty, and the consistent application of universal principles. This is already China's plea to the world.
Africa's historical experience with colonialism, its commitment to non-alignment during the Cold War, in addition to its contemporary struggles for development and democracy, position it uniquely to advocate for a more equitable world-system. This is not simply a matter of rhetoric; it requires concrete action - such as African nations taking the lead in reforming international institutions like the UN Security Council to ensure more equitable representation and decision-making power.
The key to unlocking such opportunities lies in fundamentally reimagining Africa's relationship with the rest of the world. This begins with the recognition that strategic autonomy is not a luxury but an existential necessity. African states need to actively resist any pressure to align themselves with competing global power blocs. Instead, they should leverage their collective influence to extract concessions while maintaining independence of action. This requires transforming the African Union from a talking shop into an operational force. Specifically, the AU's Peace and Security Council needs permanent funding mechanisms independent of donor countries, allowing rapid deployment of mediation teams when conflicts emerge. Regional economic communities must establish joint procurement systems for essential imports, reducing individual countries' vulnerability to supply chain disruptions.
Africa's 140 million diaspora members represent an underutilized strategic asset. Their $95 billion in annual remittances already exceed foreign aid, but their political influence remains fragmented. Coordinated diaspora lobbying helped secure debt relief for several African countries in the 2000s. Today, organized diaspora networks could pressure host governments to adopt more principled positions on African issues, while providing alternative funding for development projects when traditional donors and organisations like the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, impose austerity conditions that compromise sovereignty.
Economic resilience requires concrete institutional changes. African countries should establish a continental strategic petroleum reserve, managed through the African Development Bank, reducing vulnerability to energy price shocks. The African Continental Free Trade Area must prioritize intra-African supply chains for essential goods—currently, Africa imports 85% of its pharmaceuticals despite having the raw materials to produce them domestically. Regional development banks should offer infrastructure financing in local currencies, reducing dollar dependency that external powers exploit during crises.
Massive investments in renewable energy infrastructure, agricultural regeneration, and industrial development are not just economic imperatives-they are strategic necessities for maintaining independence in an increasingly turbulent world. Similarly, diversifying trade relationships and reducing dependence on any single external partner can provide crucial flexibility during periods of global instability. This also requires a shift away from extractive industries towards greater economic complexity: value-added manufacturing and services will create more diversified and resilient economies.
The militarization trap that has ensnared so many societies around the world poses a particular threat to African development and democracy. The temptation to respond to external pressures through increased military spending and authoritarian control will need to be resisted in favour of approaches that strengthen civilian institutions, encourage entrepreneurship, promote inclusive governance, and address any root causes of instability. The experience of Middle Eastern societies, where decades of militarization have produced neither security nor prosperity, offers a cautionary tale that African rulers would be wise to heed. Instead of prioritizing military spending, investments in education, healthcare, technological development and social programs that promote long-term stability and prosperity, will benefit African resilience and social coherence.
Even more importantly, Africa must resist the fragmentation and polarization that external actors often seek to exploit. The continent's diversity of perspectives, experiences, and interests should be viewed as a source of strength rather than an inherent weakness. Building consensus around shared principles while respecting legitimate differences of opinion and approach could create a unified but flexible response to external pressures. This is particularly vital in the face of rising ethnic and religious tensions, which external actors often exploit to advance their own agendas. African rulers must give precedence to inclusive governance, promoting reconciliation to prevent these divisions from escalating into conflict.
Rwanda's post-genocide transformation illustrates this potential. By rejecting donor-imposed economic models and developing indigenous solutions like community-based health insurance, Rwanda achieved remarkable development while maintaining policy autonomy. Similarly, Ethiopia's recent mediation between Eritrea and Djibouti demonstrated how African diplomacy can resolve regional conflicts without any intervention from external parties.
We must not overlook the need to preserve an authentic African story. In that regard information sovereignty appears to be another battlefield where African nations must assert their agency. The 2020 disinformation campaigns around COVID-19 vaccines, which were traced to both Western pharmaceutical interests and authoritarian regimes, illustrated so clearly how digital tweaking can shape African public opinion. Building indigenous media platforms, developing fact-checking networks, and early training in digital literacy could transform Africa from a passive consumer of external narratives into an active shaper of its own identity as well as contributing to global discourse.
The emerging international reality is being fashioned by how societies and regions respond to the current period of transition with its innate ambiguities and deep uncertainties. Africa's response to the Israel-Iran conflict and its broader implications could decide whether the continent becomes a passive victim of external manipulation or an active architect of a more equitable world-system. I'm convinced that the choice between dependency and autonomy, between fragmentation and unity, and between reactive responses or proactive stewardship, will define Africa's trajectory for generations to come.
Right now, in the global transition from an exhausted Eurocentric industrial monetocracy and its associated ideological turmoil, to whatever the future has in store for the human family, we're in what can only be described as a civilisational meltdown. When old certainties crumble and new possibilities emerge, it's an opportunity for new worldviews to germinate. Africa could use this moment to transcend its historical role as a battlefield for external powers and evolve as a guide and mentor in the construction of a more just and enduring world-system. Note that I hesitate to use the term "world order" as this archaic phrase doesn't even come close to representing the dynamicism of today's realities or the constant need we have for adaptation.
To seize this opportunity requires unprecedented levels of foresight, self-confidence, wisom and commitment from all African citizens. It will demand a willingness to make tough choices, resist easy solutions that compromise long-term independence for short-term gains, and set aside any ingrained tribal instincts that could prove to be self-defeating. These challenging choices include prioritizing long-term regenerative development over short-term resource extraction, and resisting the impulse to use ethnic or religious divisions for political gain. Overcoming ingrained tribal instincts will require building inclusive institutions and fostering a sense of shared national identity - never easy to do but essential for establishing the conditions within which beneficial and impactful change can blossom.
In any case, the impacts from Middle Eastern conflicts are going to reach Africa regardless of the continent's preferences or preparations. The question is whether African societies will be passive recipients of these shockwaves or active agents shaping their own destiny. Finding a way forward requires not just surviving the current crisis but converting it into an opportunity for genuine self-determination. I have known some remarkable and resilient Africans. On that basis alone I reckon Africa's greatest resource is not its minerals or agricultural potential but its aptitude for principled custodianship in a world desperately in need of moral clarity and authentic multilateralism. This custodianship could manifest in promoting innovative solutions to climate change, advocating for fairer trade practices, and championing a more inclusive approach to global governance.
As always the future remains unexplored and unwritten. But the decisions made in Africa's cities over the coming months and years will resound far beyond the continent's coastline. By 2050, Africa's population will reach 2.5 billion—larger than China and India combined. One in four people on the planet will have African blood. This demographic weight, properly organized, could reconfigure global institutions. Instead of accepting permanent UN Security Council exclusion, African states could threaten withdrawal from UN agencies until fair representation is achieved. With collective negotiating power, Africa could demand technology transfer, debt restructuring, and climate financing as rights, not charity. This is Africa's moment to demonstrate that another world is possible-one based on justice, equity, and respect for the dignity and sovereignty of all peoples.
The seismic shocks we can expect from the Middle East over the coming months and even years may test Africa's foundations. They also present an unprecedented opportunity to unlock the neocolonial shackles of yesteryear in favour of creating something stronger, more resilient, and more aligned with the aspirations of the African people. This "something stronger" is not simply a return to the past, but a bold leap into a future where Africa is a custodian of regenerative development, entrepreneurial impact, social innovation, and global governance.