The Great Unravelling
The Absence of Leadership in a G-Zero World
The escalating absence of anything approaching a unifying vision in our G-Zero world is now alarmingly evident. A teleological vacuum manifests in the protracted conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, where lip service is paid to peace yet, sadly, genuine commitment is conspicuously absent.
The United States has effectively relinquished its role as a stabilizing force in the Middle East - actually a stabilizing force anywhere. It remains Israel's most powerful ally, but has failed to leverage this influence to broker peace. The tail is wagging the dog. Washington has obeyed Netanyahu’s every command, willingly bolstering Israel’s actions and prolonging the devastation and suffering of the Palestinian and Lebanese populations. US support of Israel's exploits raises moral questions about the consequences of inaction in the face of human suffering. Furthermore, the inability of organizations like the International Criminal Court and International Court of Justice to have any impact whatsoever when their decisions and recommendations are simply ignored and cannot be legally enforced, should concern us all.
In all honesty, China has also stepped back from its leadership responsibilities in Eurasia. Despite being Russia’s most significant ally, it has not used its considerable clout to foster resolution. Indeed, China has tacitly given support to Russia’s expansionism, nudging it closer to a direct confrontation with NATO.
So what remains of global security? Very little. We find ourselves adjusting to a heightened state of instability as the most powerful actors, particularly a divided and often dysfunctional America, withdraw from the fray. The major conflicts of our time show no signs of a long-term resolution - partly because in this age of universal surveillance, nothing can be hidden from view. Ukraine is on the brink of partition, Palestinians face further dispossession. Much of Africa continues to suffer from political instability, while internal strife plagues the US. The European Union, too, is showing signs of brittleness with problems ranging from internal cohesion to nationalism and inflation. Clearly this state of affairs is untenable.
Ukraine's military lacks the resources to reclaim its territory, and Vladimir Putin is unlikely to cede any land voluntarily. There’s no miraculous third option on the horizon; the reality is that, with or without a formal peace agreement, Ukraine will likely be partitioned. A more pressing question is whether a post-war Ukraine offers a safer, more integrated future, free from the threat of Russian hostility. This hinges on the level of diplomatic, economic, and security support Kyiv garners from its allies in the coming months.
While diplomatic support remains a viable expectation, the pathway to EU integration is fraught with challenges as rising populism and resistance threaten to derail progress. Yet, with a unified European stance and pro-Ukraine leadership, there’s a glimmer of hope for accession. Economic aid is likely to diminish from current levels, as the destruction being wrought by Russia increases Ukraine’s funding needs while eroding its productive capabilities. Meanwhile, Western resolve to provide assistance has been waning for some time.
The most formidable challenge lies in security support - NATO membership or an equivalent guarantee. This is Putin’s red line and Ukraine’s non-negotiable condition for any ceasefire that entails territorial concessions. Without such assurances, Russia will remain emboldened to seize further Ukrainian territory, while Kyiv will dig in its heels and refuse to negotiate. But extending NATO membership risks dragging the alliance into direct conflict with Russia.
Even if NATO membership is offered, Putin holds a veto. If hostilities persist and missiles rain down on Ukrainian cities, NATO's acceptance of Ukraine could escalate into a declaration of war. This precarious balance could paradoxically galvanize international support for Ukraine while pressuring Russia to seek an end to hostilities. In the interim, we must brace for continued Russian offensives, accompanied by significant human suffering and targeted strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure. Concurrently, Ukraine will likely employ asymmetric warfare, raising the danger of military escalation.
As the West engages in an undeclared hybrid war against Russia, Putin’s isolation may lead to impulsive decisions. North Korean soldiers are already fighting alongside the Russians, demonstrating that his alliance with North Korea, Iran, and the larger BRICS alliance is deepening, creating a less predictable international environment. Even if the situation in Ukraine stabilizes, the broader conflict between Russia and the West is poised to intensify.
The dynamics in the Middle East present a different picture. The war in Gaza has produced no mutually acceptable outcomes for Israelis and Palestinians, yet the regional risks might be less severe than those facing NATO-Russia relations. While a ceasefire remains elusive, the conflict is effectively turning into an uneasy deadlock, with Israeli forces achieving most of their military objectives and withdrawing to redeploy elsewhere. The war has radicalized Palestinians, worsening their dire economic and security situations, and fueling a willingness for revolutionary action against Israel. The likelihood of terrorist attacks has risen significantly and will remain high for generations, while Israeli society hardens against Palestinian statehood.
The broader outlook for the Middle East, however, appears more stable. The Abraham Accords endure, with Saudi Arabia now coupling its stabilization of relations with Israel to the founding of a Palestinian state. Nonetheless, behind the scenes, Saudi-Israeli cooperation continues to strengthen, and it’s plausible that Riyadh may abandon its public demands once hostilities cease.
Iran, having normalized relations with Saudi Arabia, has shown surprising restraint, despite Israeli incursions and provocations. No major power in the region desires an all-out war, as Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iran recognize their shortcomings against the US-backed military might of Israel. Israel's moral authority, however, has been sadly depleted and that, more than any military or economic factor, could become the one vulnerability that cannot be repaired.
We're already seeing Western allies distance themselves from Israel’s government as younger generations express scepticism and distress over the genocide in Gaza. Israel might be able to sustain its asymmetrical power, adeptly defending itself as the plight of Palestinians recedes into the background once again. Or it might already have sown the seeds of its own destruction as an international pariah. In the longer-term, against the backdrop of a multipolar world order, stability in the Middle East is possible, as key players grasp the futility of regional conflict.
The most immediate pressing concern lies within the United States itself. Unlike the external conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, the deterioration of American democracy represents a structural crisis at the heart of the global power vacuum. With elections imminent, the stakes are not merely about victory of one side or another, but about the integrity of democracy itself. Americans are increasingly aware of the forces undermining their constitution, though they differ on that source. The left views certain political maneuvers as the greatest threats to democracy, while the right sees a conspiracy among ‘deep state’ elites to subvert it.
Nor is the post-election landscape without its perils; nearly half the populace may perceive the outcome as illegitimate. Regardless of the victor, many will feel a sense of disillusionment with a system they believe is failing them. While America’s powerful foundational strengths remain, its political dysfunction casts a long shadow over global affairs. Allies and adversaries alike are beginning to question the reliability of a once-indispensable nation.
This is precisely why we can expect conditions to worsen before they improve. The United States must confront its divisions - a profound reckoning is long overdue. One would have thought that the events of January 6th, 2021 were a wake-up call. But perhaps it will take a more severe shock, like a run on the greenback, or a major military setback, to galvanize real action. Until then, America’s political crisis will continue to fester, aggravating the global 'leadership' void.
Nature detests a vacuum. The deepening of the G-Zero world disorder leaves all of us susceptible to escalating global turbulence at a time when we urgently need to come together to deal with the crises facing our species. Temporary local disputes will feed off one another for the time being, impeding our capacity to focus on other matters. The major arms manufacturers of the industrial-military complex don't care. Mainstream media will still dish up trivia and gossip to distract us.
Yet amid all these challenges, remarkable opportunities exist. We must not lose confidence. It's fair to say that not all 'crises' are as calamitous as they appear. The key question is how we turn our attention to the things that threaten our species and our civilization, and away from the petty squabbles of bickering tribes and their need to 'win'.